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FEBRUARY 17,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

IS IT ACCURATE? – From Fox:  Donald Trump has been knocked from his perch atop the GOP presidential primary field by Sen. Ted Cruz, according to a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday evening.  The poll showed Sen. Cruz of Texas leading the New York businessman by two percentage points, 28-26, among Republican primary voters. Cruz’ lead is within the poll's 4.9 percent margin of error.  Florida Sen. Marco Rubio came in third, garnering 17 percent, followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Dr. Ben Carson and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.  We don't know yet if this poll has caught a trend, or if it's just an outlier.  Fox comes out with a national poll and a South Carolina poll tomorrow, Thursday.

ANOTHER U.S. APOLOGY COMING? – From ABC News:   President Obama is planning a trip to Cuba some time next month, marking the first time in more than 80 years a sitting U.S. president will visit the country, according to sources with knowledge of the plan.  A National Security Council official plans to make the announcement tomorrow at the White House briefing.  The trip is planned for March 21-22 before the president flies to Argentina.  How exciting – an embrace of the Castro brothers, probably Obama's heroes.  I wonder if the great "leader of the free world" will visit any political prisoners.  Oh, he's also scheduled to visit Vietnam.  Just be grateful that this world traveler has only 11 months left in office.

REAL CLASS – From Mediaite:   President Obama will not be at the funeral for Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia on Saturday.  The president will go to the late justice’s wake on Friday to pay his respects, but he will not attend the funeral on Saturday.  Vice President Joe Biden and his wife Jill Biden will be attending Scalia’s funeral.  Obama just lacks class.  He wouldn't even send a high-level delegation to Margaret Thatcher's funeral, but personally attended Nelson Mandela's.  He should go to Scalia's funeral simply to pay tribute to a great and civilized legal scholar, agree with him or not.  French President Charles deGaulle, despite differences with the United States, walked behind John F. Kennedy's coffin after Kennedy's assassination.  There are big men and small men.

February 17,  2016     Permalink

ECONOMIC WARNING – AT 7:08 A.M. ET:   Please recall that the huge economic jolt that has produced years of agony in the United States occurred during the 2008 presidential campaign.  It may have had a role in handing the election to Barack Obama.  From AP: 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Eight years after the financial crisis, the world is coming to grips with an unpleasant realization: serious weaknesses still plague the global economy, and emergency help may not be on the way.

Sinking stock prices, flat inflation, and the bizarre phenomenon of negative interest rates have coupled with a downturn in emerging markets to raise worries that the economy is being stalked by threats that central banks - the saviors during the crisis - may struggle to cope with.

Meanwhile, commercial banks are again a source of concern, especially in Europe. Banks were the epicenter of the 2007-9 crisis, which started over excessive loans to homeowners with shaky credit in the United States and then swept the globe into recession.

"You have pretty sluggish growth globally. You don't really have any inflation. And you have a lot of uncertainty," says David Lebovitz, who advises on market strategies for JP Morgan Funds.

Some of the recent tumult may be an overreaction by jittery investors. And the rock-bottom interest rates are partly a result of easy money policies by central banks doing their best to stimulate growth in the years since the crisis.

Unemployment is low in several major economies, 4.9 percent in the United States and 4.5 percent in Germany. The IMF forecasts growth picking up from 3.1 percent last year to 3.4 percent this year.

But that's still far short of the 5.1 percent growth in 2007, before the crisis. The realization is dawning that growth may continue to underperform, and that recent turmoil may be more than just normal market volatility.

And...

"The world looks worse than it did six months ago," says Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management. "Growth forecasts have come down. Risks have grown."

COMMENT:  Enjoy your breakfast.

February 17, 2016       Permalink

VIRGINIA STARTS TO SPEAK – AT 7:01 A.M. ET:  Polling in the key, purple state of Virginia shows that Donald Trump, at least for now, is not meeting expectations.  From Weekly Standard: 

The latest survey of likely GOP primary voters in Virginia from polling firm Overtime Politics gives Trump a 14-point lead over Rubio, 33 percent to 19 percent. John Kasich comes in third place at 14 percent, followed by Ted Cruz at 12 percent and Jeb Bush and Ben Carson at 8 percent each.

Overtime notes this is a bump of 5 points for Trump, 13 points for Kasich, and 5 points for Rubio since their previous poll in early January, while Cruz has dropped 7 points and Carson 9 points.

The second poll, from Christopher Newport University, found Trump with 28 percent support among likely Republican voters in the Old Dominion, followed more closely by Rubio at 22 percent, Cruz at 19 percent, Carson and Kasich at 7 percent each, and Bush at 4 percent. The poll was taken over the course of two weeks, after the Iowa caucuses and both before and after the New Hampshire primary.

COMMENT:  Trump is called the frontrunner, but he consistently polls in the low- to mid-thirties.  That's hardly blowout territory.  The rest of the field divides the anti-Trump vote.  If the field can coalesce around one candidate, Trump would be losing.  That winnowing is key to the future of the race.

Virginia votes on March 1st, which is "Super Tuesday."  From Wikipedia: 

"Super Tuesday in the 2016 election cycle is scheduled to be held on March 1, 2016. This date has been dubbed the "SEC Primary", since many of the participating states are represented in the U.S. collegiate Southeastern Conference.

"The participating states include: Alabama, Alaska Republican caucuses, Arkansas, Colorado caucuses, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming Republican caucuses."

Two weeks away. 

February 17, 2016       Permalink

THE FOLKS ARE LEARNIN' – AT 6:50 A.M. ET:  You mean there's media bias?  You mean voters actually notice?  Yeah, it's the truth.  From the Washington Examiner:

Media bias is a bigger problem than high dollar donations for 2016 likely voters focused on the presidential election, according to a new national survey.

Rasmussen Reports found that when asked "Which is the bigger problem in politics today," voters picked media bias over money, 47 percent to 45 percent.

What's more, the survey found that voters believe that the media has too much power in politics. Some 66 percent said it was too powerful, compared to just 26 percent who said the media wielded just enough influence in the election.

"Middle-aged voters tend to believe more strongly than other voters that the media have too much influence over elections," said the poll analysis.

Voters do generally agree that rich Americans and wealthy special interests also have too much power in politics, said Rasmussen.

COMMENT:  When we say "media bias" we generally mean left-wing bias.  Rasmussen says, "Voters are far more likely to think the media is biased against Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump than against his chief Democratic rival Hillary Clinton." 

I think one of the reasons for the success of Fox News is that it gives Republicans and conservatives a fair shot.

I don't know if media bias can be cured, since most reporters come from colleges that teach that liberalism is mainstream and that conservatism is the voice of the Devil.

February 17,  2016     Permalink

FEBRUARY 16,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 7:54 P.M. ET: 

THE MAIN BOUT – From The Politico:   Mysterious outside groups are asking state parties for personal data on potential delegates, Republican campaigns are drawing up plans to send loyal representatives to obscure local conventions, and party officials are dusting off rule books to brush up on a process that hasn’t mattered for decades.  As Donald Trump and Ted Cruz divide up the first primaries and center-right Republicans tear one another apart in a race to be the mainstream alternative, Republicans are waging a shadow primary for control of delegates in anticipation of what one senior party official called “the white whale of politics”: a contested national convention.  The endgame for the most sophisticated campaigns is an inconclusive first ballot leading to a free-for-all power struggle on the floor in Cleveland.  Personally, I can't wait.  It would be a great exercise in a political party acting like a political party.  Bargaining.  Debating.  Looking the candidates over, in the flesh.  And it's unlikely a party convention would nominate a jerk.  Those delegates have to face their families.

GOP SUPREME COURT STAND SOFTENING – From the Washington Times:   Cracks were emerging Tuesday in congressional Republicans’ position of blocking automatically any candidate nominated by President Obama to fill the Supreme Court seat of the late Antonin Scalia.  Sen. Thom Tillis, North Carolina Republican, voiced caution Tuesday about the GOP blocking any Obama nominee without a hearing.  “I think we fall into the trap if [we] just simply say, sight unseen, we fall into the trap of being obstructionists,” Mr. Tillis said on the Tyler Cralle radio show.  But Mr. Tillis added of the president, “If he puts forth someone that we think is in the mold of President Obama’s vision for America, then we’ll use every device available to block that nomination.”  This is a good strategic move.  It reminds me of the movie mogul Jack Warner's line:  "I don't want to see that S.O.B. in my office again...unless I need him."  By leaving the door a crack open, but insisting on a consensus candidate, and vowing to defeat anyone who isn't a consensus candidate, the Republicans can come out of this well.  Most important, the nation might actually wind up with a fine justice.  Remember, the Senate's Constitutional role is to advise and consent, not just consent.  If the president were smart – and there are questions – he'd openly seek the Senate's advice on nominees.

COBURN SLAMS DONALD – From the Washington Examiner:  Former Sen. Tom Coburn is angry about being quoted in the latest Donald Trump attack on Ted Cruz.  Coburn called the quote an "absolute fabrication."  As part of his never-ending criticism of Cruz, Trump's Twitter feed retweeted and pushed a quote ostensibly from Coburn criticizing Cruz as "one of the most dishonest people" in Washington. Coburn never said this.  During a phone interview with the Washington Examiner, the former Oklahoma senator fired back at Trump.  "It's an absolute fabrication. I've never said that, period," Coburn told the Examiner. "It's unfortunate he would use my name to say something dishonest. It's a total fabrication."  Coburn is a fine man, and was a respected senator.  I'd take anything he said to the bank.

February 16, 2016       Permalink

OUR NEXT PRESIDENT? – AT 10:27 A.M. ET:  Things are getting desperate for Hillary.   From Fox: 

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton turned to animal impersonations Monday as the former secretary of state ramped up her effort to secure victory over surging Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in this Saturday's Nevada caucuses.

Speaking before a crowd in Reno, Clinton described how she would like to fact-check various Republican claims. He began her story with a recollection of a political ad that aired on the radio in Arkansas. The ad featured a dog that the announcer claimed would bark any time a candidate said an untrue statement.

"We need to get that dog and follow him around and every time they say these things, like, 'oh the Great Recession was caused by too much regulation," Clinton said before yelping, "Arf! Arf! Arf! Arf!" to general applause.

Clinton and her opponent, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, have criss-crossed the Silver State in recent days. On Sunday, they wound up at opposite ends of a pew in the same Las Vegas church.

Sanders' ground game is catching up to the Clinton machine as well. The so-called Democratic socialist's campaign has over 100 staffers on the ground and has more than doubled its paid staff here since last month, along with spending double on his television spots compared to Clinton - $2.93 million to Clinton’s $1.46 million.

COMMENT:  Let's see.  We get a choice between hard-cursing, out-of-control, vulgar Donald Trump and animal-impersonating, security-risking, and, in private, hard-cursing Hillary Clinton.  What do we do? 

Independent candidate, wherever you are, you're on.

February 16, 2016       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – ON DEMAGOGUES – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  What is an election about?  From the great Thomas Sowell, one of the wisest writers working today, noting the anger of American voters in 2016:

Their anger may be justified, but anger is not a sufficient reason for choosing a candidate in a desperate time for the future of this nation. And there is such a thing as a point of no return.

Voters need to consider what elections are for. Elections are not held to allow voters to vent their emotions. They are held to choose who shall hold in their hands the fate of hundreds of millions of Americans today and of generations yet unborn.

Too many nations, in desperate times, especially after the established authorities have discredited themselves and forfeited the trust of the people, have turned to some new and charismatic leader, who ended up turning a dire situation into an utter catastrophe.

The history of the 20th century provides all too many examples, whether on a small scale that led to the massacre in Jonestown in 1978 or the earlier succession of totalitarian movements that took power in Russia in 1917, Italy in 1922 and Germany a decade later.

Eric Hoffer's shrewd insight into the success of charismatic leaders was that the "quality of ideas seems to play a minor role," What matters, he pointed out, "is the arrogant gesture, the complete disregard of the opinion of others, the singlehanded defiance of the world."

Is that the emotional release that Republican voters will be seeking when they begin voting in the primaries? If so, Donald Trump will be their man. But if the sobering realities of life and the need for mature and wise leadership in dangerous times is uppermost in their minds, they will have to look elsewhere.

COMMENT:  As usual, Dr. Sowell gets it right.  I do hope readers will consider his words.  Donald Trump has many talents, and he might even do some good things as president.  But I believe his temperament, his shallowness, his viciousness, disqualify him.  We are electing a president, not choosing a wrestling champion.

I have written before that this is becoming a very adolescent nation.  It can be attributed to many things – the decline in moral standards, the pampering of our children, the hollowing of our educational system.  I think we see the adolescence in Trump's behavior and, on the other side, in the antics of both the corrupt Hillary Clinton and the promise-them-anything Bernie Sanders.  They seem to be saying, "Just trust me.  You're a kid.  What do you know?"

We need a year of wisdom.  We aren't getting it.

February 16, 2016       Permalink

TRUMP THREATENS AGAIN – AT 8:54 A.M. ET:  At what point will voters realize that this man is just a bully?  I don't know, but I find him increasingly depressing.  From The State:

HANAHAN, S.C.   Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump did not close the door Monday on a possible third-party run, accusing the Republican National Committee of breaking its pledge to stay neutral in the race.

“The RNC is in default,” Trump said during a news conference here. “When somebody is in default, that means the other side can do what they have to do.”

The New York billionaire also criticized Republican Gov. Nikki Nikki Haley, saying she had failed to protect South Carolina from Syrian refugees who could pose a danger to the state and the possibility of Guantanamo prisoners being transferred to the Navy brig outside Charleston.

“A governor has a lot of power people don’t realize,” Trump said, three miles from the brig. “A governor has a choice.”

Haley has sent letters to federal officials voicing her objection to allowing refugees in the state without vetting and protesting any plans to move the Guantanamo prisoners to South Carolina. No decision has been made about moving those prisoners.

“Donald Trump would be wise to know the facts before he discusses serious issues affecting South Carolinians — on both topics, the governor has taken on President Obama directly,” Haley deputy chief of staff Rob Godfrey said.

Haley, one of the state’s most popular Republicans, has criticized Trump on several occasions for his combative campaign tactics, including in her State of the Union response last month, when she asked voters to avoid the “angriest voices.”

COMMENT:  And yet, nothing Trump does seems to dent his lead in the polls.  He seems headed for another victory in South Carolina this Saturday, although polls show him remaining in the thirties, not exactly a stellar performance for a man who expects the nomination.

February 16,  2016     Permalink